I finished reading the rest of the Case Study this evening. Here are two other good quotes:
Citing research on rail estimates carried out by the US Department of Transportation, the
authors observe that “for virtually every [rail transport] project the divergence between
forecast and actual ridership was wider than the entire range of the critical decision
variables. Actual ridership was 28 to 85 percent [average 65 percent] lower than forecast
ridership, meaning that forecasts overshot actual development by 38 to 578 percent
[average 257 percent].75 The authors conclude that the accuracy (or rather the degree of
inaccuracy) of demand forecasting is a major source of uncertainty and risk in the
appraisal of major projects.
As the new mayor prepares to hand over Ottawa’s transit planning task to community
volunteers in the new transit task force, it is difficult not to agree with Denley’s verdict
…our highly paid experts and elected councillors have made a terrible mess
of it. They poured millions of dollars and untold thousands of hours of staff
time into a north-south rail plan that the public ultimately did not endorse.
They’ve also spiked all the studies of the east-west rail plans. In truth, they
have no plan, except a plan to spend.
Has anyone else read it?